🗓️ What’s Up Next
Congress
The House is in session until the 15th of January, and Senate is in session this week until January 16th.
The PA General Assembly
Both the House and Senate reconvene on January 26th.
Want a deeper dive?
If there’s a topic you’re interested in our analysis of, feel free to drop us a line. We’ll be doing deeper dives on the big stuff as it happens, but we’re always happy to hear what you want to know.
The Congressional Breakdown
Amid Congress’s return to session, there’s been one major international or domestic situation after the other in the last few weeks, complicating the news cycle and potentially stalling legislation.
A few bills managed to move this week, but not all in the upward path. With the deadline to avoid another shutdown (Jan 30th) swiftly approaching, the onus is on Congress to pass a whole host of departmental funding bills. We’re breaking down what’s happened below.
What’s Going on in Congress
If you recall last week, we talked about a procedural hurdle facing a three-bill funding package, or “minibus”, that managed to eke its way through the House late on Wednesday. But it was narrow: 214-212. Following the vote, reps huddled with the Majority Whip and asked for more member participation, leading to two amendment votes scheduled for today on the Departments of Treasury and State, as well as the IRS and the Federal Trade Commission.
Healthcare is the issue haunting the legislature—for good reason. A bipartisan group of senators working on a compromise deal regarding subsidies and potential changes won’t have any legislative text ready until the last week of January. It’s a narrow deadline and a bit of a blow to some who hoped the legislation would be ready by the end of the week.
Labor bills scrapped: Johnson’s defector problem continues, with six Republican reps sinking a labor-related bill that would have incentivized employers to offer more training and education programs, at the expense of being required to offer overtime pay. In the wake of that bill’s failure, two other labor-related bills were scraped, one related to franchise stores’ liability for employee working conditions, which is expected to fail.
An ICE officer’s killing of a US citizen last week has renewed arguments in both parties about how to rein in President Trump’s use of the DHS and ICE officers, but can such a thing be done? Politico’s analysis is a good one, presenting a unique dilemma for Congress: if they hope to control DHS and ICE, they’ll have to fund it.
More discharge petitions incoming? This may finally be the year that Congress passes a bill to reform and limit member stock trading. The House is teeing up to vote on a GOP-written bill moving through the House Administration Committee on Wednesday, one that allows members of Congress to keep their current stocks. Some members say that it’s not going far enough.
The Sector Breakdown
Food and Agriculture: Remember the food pyramid? RFK Jr. might be making some changes. The Secretary announced new dietary guidelines that are, in short, eat more protein, cut down on sugar consumption, and prioritize a rainbow of vegetables over processed foods. In recent years, there’s been a push to un-vilify whole fat products, leaving the “low-fat” versions of things like sour cream, milk, and other dairy products at the door.
Education: The Supreme Court is weighing arguments over the banning of transgender athletes from sports that align with their gender identity. More on this below in The Pennsylvania Impact section.
Finance and Economy: As the Justice Department moves to investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the president must determine who he’ll nominate to succeed Powell to run the Fed. What’s the race to the chair really about? The central bank’s independence. Plus, Trump’s latest splashy idea for affordability is being stopped by his own party: capping credit card interest rates isn’t something the GOP is on board with.
Energy and Environment: Iran is the 6th largest oil producer in the world, a fact that creates some tension as the country becomes embroiled in protests. In addition to weighing military options (more on that below) the US is planning out how to be a “stabilizing force” for Iran to ensure the continuation of success in the oil industry.
Defense: What’s within Trump’s power to do when it comes to the protests in Iran? Turns out, not much. While the US—and the president—claim it will move to defend protesters in the face of regime change in the region, Trump is faced with the reality that any large deployments of military troops isn’t all that realistic. Not to mention, military intervention isn’t exactly a popular idea.
The Pennsylvania Impact
The uncertain start to the year in Congress means a waiting game here in Pennsylvania. The expiration of ACA subsidies—and a lack of framework to replace them—is putting many in financial or health-related crises. The scrapping of the labor bill designed to incentivize employer-led training in Congress points towards a potential appetite for “upskilling”, especially as AI use surges in the workforce, but is trading away wage protections the way to get it?
Continuing on the AI impact in PA, as the state looks to build more data centers, Rep Bresnahan was found trading stocks while pushing for a new AI data center in his district. The AI argument is a political lightning rod for the continued push against member stock trading.
Meanwhile, the impact of RFK’s food changes has the potential to hit the agriculture sector. Proposed dietary guidelines could increase demand in PA’s massive farming sector, but that boon is rolled up in DHS immigration crackdowns. Conversely, a shift away from processed food, such as reducing the reliance on corn-based syrups and packaged foods, could negatively impact Pennsylvania-based corporations whose primary business is the production of processed foods and snacks.
Finally, the Supreme Court’s debate over transgender athletes will call into question how to keep safe the frameworks that other states already have in place. The Supreme Court has a recent track record of kicking issues back to the states to decide (the overturn of Roe v Wade is an example) and some argue that this issue will see a similar ruling. Pennsylvania has a range of patchwork policies throughout its districts—we’ll have to wait and see what the ruling is to know how that will change.
🔥 What We’re Watching
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer plans to initiate contempt-of-Congress proceedings against former President Bill Clinton. This action stems from the Clintons’ refusal to appear before the committee's investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.
Trump’s threats against Greenland are even more a threat to NATO. Military action against any nation in NATO by another has the potential to crumble the whole operation. Now, Greenland and NATO are discussing ways to give Trump the domestic win he badly wants, while retaining Greenland’s status as an autonomous territory under Denmark.
NASA is planning to launch its first moon mission in nearly 50 years. The Artemis II’s earliest potential launch date is February 6th, barring any problems during the “wet test”.
Did You Know? This week, the Pennsylvania farm is on! It’s the largest indoor agricultural event in the United States.
Till next time,