🗓️ What’s Up Next
Congress
The House and Senate are in session this week until January 9th.
The PA General Assembly
Both the House and Senate reconvene on January 26th.
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If there’s a topic you’re interested in our analysis of, feel free to drop us a line. We’ll be doing deeper dives on the big stuff as it happens, but we’re always happy to hear what you want to know.
The Congressional Breakdown
Welcome back.
It’s been a tumultuous return for Congress. It doesn’t escape anyone that since January 6th, 2021, the start to the new year is always rocky, rife with major, warranted criticism of the handling of the riot in Washington. It always casts a bit of a pall over Congress and local legislatures. While that’s worth mentioning, it’s not the big news, nor is it the real reason why Congress’s return has been shaky.
Healthcare and the expiration of Obamacare tax credits have roughened up the return road. While everyone wonders what will be next for healthcare and the ACA, lawmakers are returning to Capitol Hill in the hopes of making major moves to avoid another looming shutdown on January 30th. The strategy looks to be a series of minibus packages, or sets of three bills, to target the necessary sectors still lacking funding.
The GOP doesn’t seem inclined to pass another reconciliation bill as they did over the summer, given the political mess it caused. As usual, everyone has their own ideas about what’s most pressing. We’ve got a breakdown of what’s happened since Congress returned, and what we’re watching as the year begins, both domestically and abroad.
What’s Going on in Congress
The regularly-scheduled GOP retreat at the Kennedy Center was marked by tragedy on Tuesday when legislators learned of the death of their colleague, longtime sitting Congressman Doug LaMalfa of California. A few hours later, their colleague Congressman Jim Baird (Indiana) and his wife were involved in a car accident that left him hospitalized. Baird is expected to make a full recovery. The tragedy dwindles the Republican majority even further, bringing the balance of the House to 218-213, which means three votes lost with the resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green. It’s a reality that Johnson is likely not happy with, because it means he’ll only be able to lose one single GOP vote on party-line legislation on the floor.
There’s a planned vote today on one minibus funding package that covers Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy-Water, and Interior-Environment, but it remains to be seen whether the bill will make it to the floor. Rules recessed last night without approving a floor debate, so it might be back to the drawing board. The chamber is rapidly running out of a runway, however, as the number of voting days left to get fiscal bills passed is dwindling.
Also likely on the docket for today is a forced floor vote on a three-year extension for Obamacare subsidies, which the House and Senate left to lapse over winter break. Last month, four House GOP members signed a discharge petition to side with Democrats to force the vote. While the measure might pass the House, it’s unlikely Senate Majority Leader Thune will move it forward in the Senate.
Instead, Thune has his own opinion on what kind of health deal would be good enough—and bipartisan enough—to pass the chambers. Here’s his big three: minimum payments, providing a “bridge to HSAs” which would include the expansion of health savings accounts, and dealing with the “Hyde issue”, or the language that limits federal funding for abortions. It can’t really be said that this would be bipartisan, given that all three ideas are solidly GOP priorities.
Regardless, healthcare is the most pressing issue on everyone’s minds aside from avoiding another shutdown. On Tuesday, President Trump asked for “flexibility” on abortion priorities from the GOP, seeming to suggest that the hardline stance is one the GOP might have to waver on to get a deal done—you can guess how the party reacted to that.
Outside of healthcare, there are a few things coming down the pipeline this year that we’re watching out for. Here’s a quick breakdown of the major moves in relevant sectors that we’re watching.
The Sector Breakdown
Another Megabill? Perhaps. As we mentioned earlier, the GOP doesn’t seem particularly thrilled with the idea of another budget reconciliation bill given the issues it caused last time, but there’s still a possibility for a package that might be released next week that will cover homeownership affordability and new healthcare coverage options.
Food and Agriculture: RFK’s long-awaited “food stamp reform” began on January 1, with eighteen states adopting restrictions on using food aid to purchase soda and other processed foods. The problem is that retailers are exceedingly confused on what to ban, throwing everything and everyone into a tailspin. (If you’re wondering about the new vaccine guidance coming out of RFK’s office, we’re covering it below in the Pennsylvania Impact section.)
Homeland Security: The Department of Homeland Security's funding panel is considering some changes. Rep. Mark Amodei of Nevada, who chairs the panel, is seeking to significantly tighten the limits on how much money DHS can transfer between its accounts. This would restrict what kind of money, and how much, the administration can shift around.
Finance, Taxes, and Economy: The biggest topic of conversation still floating around on Capitol Hill is the continuing call for lawmakers—from their colleagues—to ban stock trading. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida has brought the issue up repeatedly, and though it’s not a uniquely Florida topic, DeSantis also has a lot to say about it. Other than that, this year is likely to bring some major crypto legislation. We’ll be honest, the topic is kind of muddy, but here’s what’s need to know: the issue centers on how to use and manage stablecoins, and whether or not crypto exchanges should be allowed to pay an annual percentage yield—via something like rewards programs—to the people who hold them. K Street (traditionally the street in Washington where most major lobbying firms are located, if you’re unfamiliar) and major banks, as well as crypto coalitions, are embroiled in the issue.
Transportation: Before the recess, the House Transportation Committee moved forward bill H.R. 6086 (119) to pay air traffic controllers during future government shutdowns—which, if you remember our coverage during the shutdown, was a major point of contention. Historically, air traffic controller pay and subsequent breakdown of the nation’s airports during a shutdown is something that can usually spur Congress into action. Because of this, some legislators aren’t thrilled with the precedent the bill sets, arguing that its unfair to other sectors as well as removing a key negotiation point during future shutdowns. Though, it’s worth mentioning that the FAA announced major air traffic control upgrades, awarding contracts to two companies to replace aging radar systems at airports across the country.
Energy and Environment: This year’s major legislation in the energy and environment sector is undoubtedly going to be about AI, and Americans kind of seem to be disillusioned by the promised benefits of AI. However, the new situation in Venezuela is going to cause changes, too. Venezuela’s interim government struck a deal on Tuesday to “turn over” billions of dollars worth of sanctioned crude oil to the United States to be sold at market price. Interim President Rodriguez is seeking to stabilize the nation’s economy and contend with US demands at the same time.
Defense: As usual, House Speaker Johnson and Majority Leader Thune are finding themselves at odds with President Trump over his military actions—but more specifically, his words—regarding Greenland and Venezuela. Johnson doesn’t expect that there will be actual military intervention in the form of “boots on the ground” in Venezuela, but we’ve all been wrong before. Thune, meanwhile, has repeatedly dismissed the possibility of military deployment to Greenland.
The Pennsylvania Impact—Looking Ahead to 2026
In healthcare, the removal of several vaccines from the “recommended for all children” by Health and Human Services Secretary RFK is both daunting and worrying for parents and for providers. Among the vaccines removed are the flu vaccine, Hepatitis A and B, Meningococcal disease, Rotavirus, RSC, and the change to the COVID-19 vaccine, as made last year. The good news here is that Pennsylvania’s vaccine requirements are unlikely to change—Governor Josh Shapiro has been vocal in assuring that. Vaccines that continue to be recommended by the CDC will still be covered by insurance, as well as all ACIP-recommended vaccinations, but insurance companies cannot be compelled to cover vaccinations that are not required by federal law. History has shown, however, that most will. While the idea behind removing vaccines is RFK’s version of “parent choice” and a way to encourage parents—and adults—to speak to their doctors in-depth about medical choices and changes, all it’s really done is sow confusion. While science is by nature an ever-evolving search for the truth, especially where it relates to health, overarching pessimism, nor naïveté, are likely to get the nation out of the situation it's in.
As we gear up for AI-related legislation and changes in 2026 on the federal level, so too is Pennsylvania. A public map created by a Scranton-area native has been put together to track and understand where AI data centers might be arriving in the state. Governor Shapiro has been vocal in his championing of embracing AI in the United States and Pennsylvania, despite some pushback from residents. Back in the summer, Amazon announced a $20b investment into AI data centers, positioning the state as a major player in the continued race for AI proficiency. What remains to be seen is whether or not Pennsylvanians will benefit from the AI boom, and what kind of roadblocks the state legislature—and nation—will face this year as public sentiment about AI turns sour.
Obamacare subsidies have officially expired, leading to price hikes for individuals buying insurance through the open market on Pennie.Com. 20 million Americans are now dealing with prices that rose overnight, some doubling or tripling, with premium costs rising by 114%, according to an analysis by the healthcare research nonprofit KFF. There’s a lot of fear all around, and experts have warned that many people—especially younger, healthier Americans—will choose to forgo health insurance coverage altogether. We’ve discussed the impact of the expiring credits at length, but we’ll continue to monitor the situation and its changes, as it's undoubtedly one of the topics that impacts Pennsylvanians most in the new year.
🔥 What We’re Watching
Trump voters are reacting to the capture of Venezuela’s President Maduro—the responses are mixed.
On Monday, the House released an Appropriations Committee package to fund operating expenses for various Interiors-related organizations, including the “John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts”. It seems Congress isn’t acknowledging, or agreeing, to Trump and the board’s name change.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said Tuesday that talks between Russia and Ukraine could culminate in a peace deal soon, following months of negotiations, according to The Hill.
The Trump administration froze $10 billion in funding for social services programs in five Democratic-led states on Tuesday, citing concerns about fraud that have not been substantiated, reports MS Now. The states include Minnesota, Colorado, New York, California, and Illinois. Something to watch as we move into an election year.
Did You Know? Rather than dropping a sparkly ball, some counties and cities in Pennsylvania opted to drop some unconventional items like wrenches, pickles, bologna, or hockey pucks to ring in 2026.
Till next time,