The Bellevue Compass

There’s a lot to discuss today in the wake of Tuesday’s election, from the shutdown crossing a record-breaking 36-day mark to SNAP and LIHEAP changes. If you’re interested in a specific section, click the link below to jump down and read:

If there’s a topic you’re interested in our analysis of, feel free to drop us a line. We’ll be doing deeper dives on the big stuff as it happens, but we’re always happy to hear what you want to know.

With the current shutdown entering its 36th day to set a new record, a few important things have happened. Namely, a primary election. How will that election impact ongoing efforts, as SNAP benefits and other important services run out of funding as the shutdown stretches on? Both sides are leaning on the election to aid in their strategy to exit the shutdown—but which side will benefit most? 

It’s not unusual for the minority party to sweep off-year elections. As President Trump engages in what Politico is calling his “maximalist revenge tour of a second term”, making more enemies than friends, the electorate pushed back. 

A Brief Election Recap

Several important gubernatorial races—one of which was New Jersey, where Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill won over three-time Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger flipped the governor’s seat Democratic, and in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure, Proposition 50, to counter Texas’ mid-cycle redistricting—that could net Democrats as many as five congressional seats next year—passed easily. 

One of the most interesting races, though, is that of New York Mayor, where Zohran Mamdani won with over a million votes against former Mayor Andrew Cuomo. This might be a bright spot for Republicans, believe it or not—Mamdani’s socialist-leaning ideals have caused more than a few intra-party grumblings, and Republicans are likely hoping to be able to tie the national party to Mayor-Elect Mamdani’s causes. On Tuesday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said Mamdani’s election cements the Democrat Party’s transformation to a radical, big-government socialist party.” Will the sentiment ring true? Remains to be seen. 

Back to the Shutdown

The question on everyone’s mind is this: how, if at all, will the results of Tuesday’s election change the parties' shutdown strategy? 

Speaking to The Hill, a few Democratic lawmakers in Congress are hopeful that Tuesday’s victory will create pressure amongst Republicans to cave to Democratic demands—by “introducing President Trump into the shutdown mix”. Despite decades of tradition where the president has sat down with both parties to discuss shutdowns and engage in good-faith negotiations, Trump has not followed suit, refusing to meet with Democratic leaders. With the electorate demonstrably unhappy with the Republican Party and the direction of the country under Trump, his avoidance may have to change. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly remains optimistic that a deal could materialize by the end of the week, now that we’re past election day. While we can’t say for sure what’s been discussed in strategy meetings, it is becoming clear that both parties are eager for an end—or at least an off-ramp—as Americans feel the sting of funding running out on SNAP and other benefits. The president maintains pressure on his party to end the filibuster in order to easily pass legislation, a move that both Democrats and Republicans consider every time their respective conference is in power. In the wake of yesterday’s election, the President appears skeptical that Democrats will move off their current stance on Obamacare, and has summoned the entire Republican conference to the White House to put pressure on them to terminate the filibuster to end the shutdown.

In a poll conducted by NBC late last month, 52% of voters say Trump and/or the Republican Party are responsible for the federal shutdown, including 25 percent who blame congressional Republicans, 24 percent who blame Trump, and 3 percent who say they blame both. 42% believe Democrats in Congress are to blame.

Some experts are speculating that the Democratic wins on Tuesday will actually see the shutdown go on longer—after all their wins, are they ready to cave, or stick out the fight longer? 

The Pennsylvania Impact

We’ve talked at length about how Pennsylvania, and the rest of the states, are feeling the strain of the shutdown in the coffers of their benefit programs like SNAP. Last month, a federal judge directed the Trump administration to use any available emergency funds to keep the integral SNAP benefits funded—an order President Trump seemed to support over the weekend, but on Monday reversed course and said that the White House would not be tapping into any other funds until the “Radical Left Democrats open up government”. Trump caught everyone off guard with the comments, just a day after Speaker Johnson assured everyone that the administration would comply with the order, understanding that many of their constituents rely on benefits like SNAP to afford food. 

Pennsylvania—and Philadelphia—have launched their own emergency funding programs to ensure that SNAP stays funded during the shutdown. The long and short of it: Governor Josh Shapiro declared a disaster emergency to address the suspension of benefits, releasing $5 million in state funding and launching a private donation drive that has already raised $1 million. The $5 million will be distributed through the Pennsylvania Agricultural Surplus System (PASS), connecting food banks with Pennsylvania farmers to provide fresh, locally grown food to families in need. Food banks have seen increased demand in the last weeks, and in some cases, double the number of visits to food pantries.  

But another impact of the shutdown is starting to emerge as Pennsylvania moves into its colder months: last month, the Pennsylvania Department of Human Services released a statement warning homeowners that the opening of this year’s Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) will be delayed until December 3rd. LIHEAP is funded in part by the federal government, and funds have not been distributed due to the shutdown, putting many families at risk of being unable to heat their homes as the temperatures drop. The state usually receives something to the tune of $215 million each year for LIHEAP—Pennsylvania alone can’t foot that bill. The good news: PGW and PECO say they will not disconnect services to households during the LIHEAP freeze. Eligible PECO customers can also get a $750 credit through a one-time grant, from their Customer Relief Fund.

🔥 What We’re Watching

Did You Know? If you’re a sports fan, you might already know this little piece of history. During World War II, due to a shortage of players, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers combined for one season to form the “Steagles”. 

Till next time,