🗓️ What’s Up Next
Congress
The House and Senate are in all week.
The PA General Assembly
The House and Senate are doing budget hearings and will not be back in regular session until the end of March.
Want a deeper dive?
If there’s a topic you’re interested in our analysis of, feel free to drop us a line. We’ll be doing deeper dives on the big stuff as it happens, but we’re always happy to hear what you want to know.
Welcome back to the Compass. The good news is, not much has changed this week. The bad news is, not much has changed this week. We’re covering the same topics we started with last week, with an evolving context.
The Congressional Breakdown
The Senate voted 51-48 this week to begin debate on the SAVE America Act, eking out approval of the measure despite opposition from Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and the noted absence of Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC). Rather than force a talk filibuster, which has been the subject of much debate in the last few weeks, Majority Leader Thune opted for a “hybrid approach”. In other words, he extended floor debate through the weekend and into next week, where Republicans will plan to maintain control of the floor and block votes on Democratic Amendments.
What’s in the bill?
The subject of much controversy and touted as Trump’s biggest legislative priority in the next few months, the SAVE America Act plans significant changes to how Americans register to vote and cast ballots. Under the legislation, new voters will be required to present documented proof of citizenship when registering to vote. Standard licenses would not apply, as REAL ID becomes required. Few states’ REAL IDs indicate citizenship, though, so those registering to vote would need to bring a copy of their US passport—something only about 50% of Americans have, and cost $165+ in fees to obtain—or birth certificate. The administration has reiterated that married women whose names have been changed will not have problems registering, though critics aren’t convinced that’s true.
The bill would also establish a nationwide voter ID requirement at the polls—which currently only exists in 36 states—and require those voting by mail to submit a photocopy. Here’s where things get dicey: the bill requires states to share voter roll data with DHS to verify citizenship. Moreover, there are some provisions in the bill completely unrelated to voting: in a floor amendment from Sen Eric Schmitt (R-MO), there’s a near-total ban on mail-in ballots, a ban on transgender athletes in women’s sports, and a prohibition on gender reassignment surgery for minors. The mail-in ballot ban is drawing resistance within the GOP, with Steve Daines (R-MT) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) voicing concerns, particularly about its impact on rural voters. Voting and how elections are run is up to the states, so critics argue that the SAVE America Act is an example of significant overreach by Congress.
The DHS Shutdown
We’re more than five weeks into the DHS shutdown. TSA staffing shortages are producing virally-long lines at many airports during a peak travel period. Workers who are reporting to their posts are doing so without pay, and others are beginning to call out to work a second job to meet their daily needs. TSA is also seeing significant resignations, with this being the third shutdown in a six month period. The spot of good news is that this week brought the first actual movement towards a solution in a month, with the White House releasing a letter outlining five areas where the administration is willing to make concessions on ICE. The letter includes agreement to expanded use of bodyworn cameras, limits on enforcement in sensitive locations like hospitals and schools, more robust oversight of detention facilities and their safety, visible officer identification requirement (a sticky topic), and adherence to existing laws that prohibit the detention or deportation of US citizens. Undercover efforts, the letter specifies, would exempt officers from the body camera and identification requirement.
Absent from the letter’s offers are two of the Democrats’ main demands, including that agents have a judicial warrant before entering private property, and a prohibition on agents wearing masks during their enforcement operations. The administration has called the warrant issue a “redline”. On the House side, meanwhile, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries launched a discharge petition to force a vote on funding TSA, FEMA, CISA, and the Coast Guard separately from ICE and CBP, but Speaker Johnson once more dismissed the idea of funding the agencies separately.
The Iran Issue
Entering its third week, the conflict with Iran has cost billions of dollars and at least thirteen American lives (CHECK). There’s yet to be a hearing on the conflict, but Senate Democrats are escalating their efforts to force one, threatening War Powers Act votes despite their almost guaranteed failure. Republicans have so far declined and deflected calls for public hearings, pointing to classified briefings and press conferences as sufficient oversight. This week, though, Senator Lisa Murkowski said she wants the administration “engaged with Congress” rather than just presenting lawmakers with “the invoice”, pointing to some cracks in the foundation of support.
The Sector Breakdown
Energy and Environment: The nature of politics lately is that what one party does, the other seeks to undo: House Democrats are planning to put their energy priorities forward in a new bill that would “restore the climate-friendly tax credits previously repealed by the Republicans and prevent the Trump administration from imposing burdens on renewable energy.”
Counterterrorism: The director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, former special forces combat veteran Joe Kent, has resigned from his post over disagreement with the administration’s handling of the Iran war, saying Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation”.
Stocks: While the price of oil continues to spike, the stock market is staying steadier this time around than when the conflict first began, AP reports.
Economy: Speaking of oil, the world’s most important oceanic trade strait—the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world—from which sails about a fifth of the world’s oil, is effectively closed due to the war with Iran. This has locked in more than 90% of both crude and refined products, according to the International Energy Agency and the AP. This means that economists are predicting the price of oil will rise even further in the coming weeks as the administration tries to negotiate with an unwilling Iranian government to reopen the Strait.
Healthcare: Something Republicans and Democrats are aligned on: they won’t see any funding cuts to the National Institute of Health and its research, and they're making their stance clear ahead of the Trump administration’s 2027 budget request, expected in the next two weeks. In other recent news, RFK Jr’s recent vaccine changes were temporarily blocked by a federal judge. The judge also suspended the appointments of the 13 members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's vaccine advisory committee, who were all appointed unilaterally by Kennedy after he fired all the preceding members.
Intelligence: House Republican leaders plan to advance an 18-month extension of a surveillance law, known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Act, which allows the government to collect the data of noncitizens abroad without explicit consent. Hard-line conservatives weren’t thrilled when it was extended in 2024, so it remains to be seen what the bill debate will look like come its introduction—planned for April.
The Pennsylvania Impact
The DHS shutdown impacts are being seen all over the country, and Pennsylvania’s international and regional airports are no exception. Three security checkpoints at PHL are closed, including Terminal C, A-West, and F, due to staffing shortages. The TSA is recommending that travelers arrive 2 and a half hours early for domestic flights—a win for the “three hours before” team—and upwards of 3 and a half hours for international flights. More than a third of the TSA’s staff is working without pay, and upwards of 350 people have quit since the start of the shutdown. With spring break travel at its peak, the window for a resolution before things get worse is narrow.
The SAVE America Act, meanwhile, could affect Pennsylvania voters and elections. Officials have said that if passed, the SAVE Act’s guidelines and new election organization would have to begin immediately, potentially creating a scramble as election officials build out entirely new procedures without the time or money to do so. As for other requirements, Pennsylvania’s REAL IDs do not have proof of citizenship, so most Pennsylvanians would be required to bring a passport, their birth certificate, or their social security card to register to vote. Married women who have changed their name would likely be required to bring their birth certificate and their marriage license. Anyone who is already registered to vote will not be impacted by the new requirements.
Senator John Fetterman, who often votes across the aisle, has joined his party in opposing the bill but says that “voter ID requirements are not unreasonable”. In the bill’s current state, it’s not garnering much support from Pennsylvania legislators, particularly in light of the Scmitt amendment and the mail-in voting ban.
🔥 What We’re Watching
Outside money from AI-backed conglomerates made Democratic races in Chicago expensive, ending with a 50% success rate for top spenders. Is this the future of campaign advertising?
The US Postal Service will be “out of cash” in a year, says the postmaster.
Tulsi Gabbard is set to speak to the Senate Intelligence Committee this morning, and the stakes are high and uncomfortable, especially after the resignations of allies Joe Kent and Kristi Noem.
Did You Know? Philadelphia is known for having the US Mint, but did you know that at one point, Pennsylvania issued its own version of paper money called a scrip?
Till next time,