The Bellevue Compass

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Welcome back to The Bellevue Compass. As Politico succinctly put it, this week is feeling like deja vu for Congress as they return after their week-long recess to discuss the reconciliation bill, the FISA bill, and deal with the DOJ’s proposed anti-weaponization fund. We break down everything happening. 

The Congressional Breakdown

The anti-weaponization fund is, in brief, not popular. Even Trump’s own party balked at the idea, stalling the vote on the reconciliation bill due to the proposed addition of the $1.8 million fund. But is the ire enough to force Trump—and the DOJ—to put the idea on the back burner? 

Maybe. The fund, Speaker Mike Johnson said Tuesday, is, he believes, off the table, along with the security funding for a White House ballroom. The Justice Department is now saying that the fund has been set aside, but Senators are looking for more than vague language: they want Trump to denounce it entirely. 

The DOJ’s statement Monday said it would “abide by” the temporary court order issued Friday that blocks payouts from the fund. Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley told reporters on Tuesday that “It’s pretty clear that the president has to say very explicitly that there’s not going to be a weaponization fund.” 

The reconciliation legislation won’t move until the administration provides assurances, according to Senate Majority Leader Thune. Leadership believes that several GOP senators would vote to include language in the bill that restricts the fund or blocks it entirely, so Thune is looking for reassurance from the administration that the idea of the fund is off the table. Otherwise, the reconciliation bill stands to be muddied by it. Another option, say people familiar with the process, is to remove any Department of Justice funding from the reconciliation bill entirely, which would require a separate bill to fund the department. 

Congress’s negative reaction to the proposed fund points to a larger rift in the GOP conference with President Trump, especially after the House struck funding for the White House ballroom from the bill earlier in May. The reconciliation bill seems on shaky ground either way. 

Outside of the ongoing mess that is the reconciliation bill, Congress is still trying to reach a deal on the FISA bill before it expires on June 12th, after being temporarily extended so members could work out the details. That might be complicated by Trump’s pick for the next Director of National Intelligence, Bill Pulte, who has sparked grumblings on both sides of the aisle. Republicans and Democrats alike are worried that someone, as Democratic Senator Mark Warner put it, “who’s shown no respect for private information, who’s got no experience in national security,” will make it more difficult to convince lawmakers to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Act. 

There’s also a growing frustration from GOP hardliners, reports Politico, who promised their voters they’d use the majority in Washington to enact anti-trans legislation—something leadership doesn’t actually seem keen to move quickly on, despite parroted talking points. Even after a record number of bills introduced last year that would “roll back access to health care, sports participation and military service for transgender individuals”, there’s been very little movement on the legislative side. 

The Sector Breakdown

The Pennsylvania Impact

As a peace deal between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. remains up in the air, gas prices also remain high. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told reporters Tuesday that he “did not think recently high gas prices amid the Iran war will have an impact on November’s midterms”. Voters in states like Pennsylvania, though, are divided. Some see the rising gas prices as a temporary pain to be dealt with, while others say it will affect how they cast their votes in November. 

Moody’s has estimated that the Iran conflict has cost US households more than $100 billion in its first three months, more than offsetting the benefits of any tax cut in the One Big Beautiful Bill. While prices in Pennsylvania aren’t at their highest—in March, prices were over $4 on average—the pain is still being felt in Pennsylvanians wallets, and it may be a factor in many voters minds come November. 

We’ve also been talking a lot lately about AI and data centers, and this week, Democratic state Senator Katie Much (Chester Co.) filed a bill to put a three-year moratorium on data center development. Co-sponsors include two Republican Senators, and the bill has received support from Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity, who said it would be “good to have a pause” to let municipalities update their zoning and other ordinances.

As the federal government and state governments rush to put guardrails on AI and data centers—and hit roadblocks at every turn—we suspect that calls for accountability and transparency will only grow as we head into the fall. Even more interesting, the topic is bringing Democrats and Republicans together in agreement. We’ll see where it goes.

What We’re Watching

Did you know? Speaking of oil…back in 1881, Pennsylvania produced more than 75% of the world’s oil. 90,000 different oil jacks dotted the landscape of McKean county, and produced nearly 23 million barrels of oil that year!

Till next time,