The Bellevue Compass

If there’s a topic you’re interested in our analysis of, feel free to drop us a line. We’ll be doing deeper dives on the big stuff as it happens, but we’re always happy to hear what you want to know.

The biggest news we’re starting with this week is the emergence of an Iran deal, though its details haven’t been fully confirmed. According to Politico, Senate Republicans are hoping to see the text and have a say in its finalization before it goes out the door. In response, Trump has said he will send the deal to Congress. The “memorandum of understanding” was reportedly signed on Sunday with Iranian officials, but the text has not been released to the public, fueling speculation about the deal. 

Senators are hoping for more information and have made it clear that any agreement touching on the Iranian nuclear program will have to be subject to a congressional vote. The memorandum reportedly includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, and talking points circulated by the White House included “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon”. 

Majority Leader Thune acknowledged that it’s out of the ordinary for the president not to share details of a major international agreement like this one with party leaders. Thune has spoken with Vice President Vance, but the substance of the deal has not been shared. It’s expected that more details will be shared sometime within the next week.

In response to the memorandum, gas prices fell, and stocks rose, but legislators are split on whether prices will return to normal at any reasonable pace. It could take months before the strait is freed of mines and trade truly reopens. Legislators are worried, too, about voter perception—a sour tone on the economy may continue until the midterms, as both parties grapple with affordability concerns and inflation at its highest point in years. 

The Congressional Breakdown

This week on the congressional agenda is the updated version of the bipartisan housing affordability bill, which is on the Senate floor for a vote. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes most of the House language that was passed last month, including the provision “restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes”. The Senate plans to add back bills dropped from the House package, including a provision to reauthorize the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery Program for seven years—as opposed to a permanent reauthorization from an earlier version; the BUILD NOW Act, which incentivizes communities to build more housing through the aforementioned program; the Rental Assistance Demonstration bill, which would raise the cap on housing authorities to convert voucher-based assistance; the Moving to Work bill, aiming to add a new cohort of Moving to Work (MTW) public housing agencies; and finally the VALID Act, which would require Federal Housing Administration mortgage disclosures to include cost comparison information for veterans. (Via Politico)

It’s currently unclear whether House leadership will sign off on the legislation and the addition of the bills. Dan Schneider, spokesman for the House Financial Services Committee, has said that some of the proposals include redlines from members of the House and warned that the Senate should exercise caution and work closely with the House to finish the legislation. 

Floating around this week is Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, after the House rejected a proposal on a 218-198 vote to extend the key surveillance provision. The House isn’t scheduled to vote again until June 23rd, ensuring that Section 702 will expire for the first time since its enactment in 2008. 

The impasse was driven largely by bipartisan opposition to the appointment of Bill Pulte—who lacked any applicable national security experience—as Director of National Intelligence. While President Trump ultimately nominated Jay Clayton for the permanent intelligence position last week, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are insisting that Pulte be removed entirely as the interim nominee before negotiations on Section 702 can resume. 

While the administration could continue to operate the program—perhaps under a forthcoming executive order, Politico surmises—tech providers could mount legal challenges now that the measure has expired. National security officials fear that this could temporarily limit visibility into surveillance targets under the law.

Further complicating this impasse, President Trump is trying to resurrect the SAVE Act by tying it to Clayton’s nomination hearings.  If Congress does not move the SAVE Act as the President wishes, Pulte remains the Interim Director of National Intelligence.

The Sector Breakdown

The Pennsylvania Impact

The World Cup is here, and host states and cities, like Pennsylvania, are looking to the games to boost local economies as inflation reaches its highest point in years. Philadelphia is projected to generate roughly $770 million in economic activity, and local businesses are capitalizing on the influx of both old and new fans by offering Philly- and team-centered merchandise. But legislators and their constituents are equally concerned about the economy—since the pandemic, voters have ranked affordability and the cost of living as top concerns, and as we move into midterms, this is unlikely to change. Public sentiment is souring even as the stock market and gas prices show a tiny rebound in the wake of the Iran memorandum. Without more information on the deal, though, voters aren’t keen to get excited about costs leveling out.

Beyond the immediate economic outlook, there’s been significant policy movement that’s shaping the environment in Pennsylvania for residents and businesses. The Senate is prioritizing the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which aims to address some of these affordability concerns, and could lend a federal boost to PA’s efforts to increase affordable housing units and preserve housing stock. The legislation also enhances federal programs that support housing stability, helping families maintain their homes. We’ll see how it all plays out in the Senate and House. 

In addition to affordability and housing in Pennsylvania—you probably already know what we’re going to say—data centers and AI are back in the state news cycle again. The future of energy is set to be a defining issue in the 2026 gubernatorial race, and both candidates have competing plans to make energy more affordable for residents as the data center boom continues. 

Gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity laid out her plan this week, speaking before the Marcellus Shale Coalition in Hershey, promising a natural-gas-first agenda in line with the Trump administration’s push for gas energy. She promised to lift barriers to drilling, speed permits for pipelines and power plants, roll back energy mandates, and position the Commonwealth as a national and global energy leader. 

Governor Shapiro, meanwhile, is placing a greater emphasis on clean energy investment and guardrails for large energy users like data centers. Last week, Garrity and members of the PA House called for a moratorium on data centers, and the very idea of them continues to scramble state politics. Residents aren’t keen to see them anywhere near their homes or lives, and Governor Shapiro walks a fine line between economic development and standards for companies building them. It’s not the only thing that will define the upcoming race, but the discrepancy in ideas is certainly something to keep an eye on, especially as Congress continues to flirt with AI guardrails. 

What We’re Watching

Did you know? It’s not quite a PA fact, but Philadelphia is one of sixteen host cities for the World Cup, so we have a soccer fun fact: The number of matches in this year’s World Cup sets a new record—104 matches—divided into 12 groups of four teams.

Till next time,