The Bellevue Compass

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Welcome back to the Compass. Things are moving this week, and Congress is tackling some very complex issues. With the most recent reconciliation bill voted through last night, Congress is looking towards what comes next. Deciding on what that is, though, has been a challenge. The GOP conference is divided and moving in factions, each with its own priorities. We’re breaking it all down below. 

The Congressional Breakdown 

After yesterday’s vote, there’s been a rumor floating around the Hill that there might be a third reconciliation bill, containing all the provisions that the One Big Beautiful Bill—last summer’s blowout legislation—missed, especially as budget season continues and legislators begin to think about tax changes. But, Johnson has been notably mum about what might be included in a third reconciliation bill, according to members. 

The topic, Johnson said, has come up in recent days, but he’s not sure of the future of the idea. Two top Senate Republicans, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), have also said that another reconciliation bill is unlikely, in their opinion. We’ll see what happens. 

Meanwhile, the bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol for three years cleared its last hurdle in the House.  It is now headed to President Trump’s desk for his signature, removing one of the stickiest issues from legislators' agendas. But is another shutdown imminent? 

Congress won’t have to argue about immigration funding, but according to Politico, senators from both sides are saying that the contentious process of this funding bill has put them in a bad position, and that circumvention of the normal process has broken trust. 

The next shutdown deadline is September 30th, and the rumors say that Congress is likely to pass a stopgap funding bill to keep agencies open, especially amid November elections. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is predicted to tell his members to oppose any proposed funding patch, but we’ll have to see. Right now, that’s another rumor. 

There’s some Democratic hope that November could change the landscape and makeup of the House or Senate, and that funding deals could change significantly. 

Outside of the reconciliation bill passage, the FISA extension is still on the table, and has been complicated by Trump’s pick for interim national intelligence director, Bill Pulte. Pulte’s lack of experience has been a sticking point for both Democrats and Republicans, and legislators aren’t keen to pass a bill that could violate the privacy of Americans under someone whom they don’t trust. Thune has said that before any decisions are made or negotiations continue, legislators are waiting to see what the White House will do. 

Most are hoping for Trump to pull back the Pulte nomination entirely, but speaking to Speaker Johnson on Tuesday, the president said that he’s not inclined to name a permanent director yet—though it’s the thing that might move the needle on the issue. For now, the options on the table for FISA are a miraculous sudden agreement or a short-term extension, which members are liking less and less each time they happen. 

Outside of the usual, there’s news in the pro-labor space this week as 20 Republicans cross party lines to vote with Democrats to advance a bill that would make it easier for workers to form unions. Democrats used a discharge petition to force a vote on The Fast Contracts Act, which aims to reduce the amount of time between workers voting to form a union and the first negotiation of their collectively bargained contract. It works, in part, by requiring the parties to enter federal mediation more quickly. The legislation now heads to the Senate where it will go to Committee. Despite bipartisan support, its fate in the Senate remains uncertain.

Latest on Iran

The US launched strikes on Tuesday on Iran in response to the downing of a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night. Both pilots in the helicopter are confirmed to be unharmed, and the US Central Command (Centcom) has said that he is “responding proportionally to unjustified aggression.” 

Iran conducted 21 attacks on US bases near the Gulf in the last 48 hours. Centcom reports that all missiles have been intercepted and that there has been no loss of life or damage to military bases. Bahrain’s military has intercepted Iranian strikes that they say were aimed at civilians. 

By all accounts, it seems that a ceasefire is on hold, but the administration maintains that negotiations have not stalled and the US will continue to seek a deal. President Trump, meanwhile, has said that Iran has waited too long to negotiate a peace deal and that it will “pay the price”. Congress passed a war powers resolution on June 4th, but short-term strikes are under the president’s jurisdiction and may not be enough to be considered “entering a war”, therefore not triggering Congress’s vote on the subject. Even still, we’re likely to see something come out of the legislature in the next week if the strikes continue. 

The Sector Breakdown 

The Pennsylvania Impact

As the federal government looks to pass stopgap funding bills rather than long-term appropriations, the state is staring down its own June 30th budget deadline and grappling with a structural deficit. If funding instability persists at the federal level, there’s a potential for quite a contentious time in the months leading up to the November election as programs that rely on federal grants—like workforce development and transit—are put in a precarious position. Meanwhile, inflation has continued to climb to its highest levels in 3 years, placing Pennsylvania’s safety nets under strain. Federal austerity isn’t likely to help the situation. 

Speaking of rising costs: one in three Pennsylvania residents who bought an Affordable Care Act health plan last year dropped coverage for 2026, after costs more than doubled on average after critical tax credits expired, reports the Inquirer. A total of 160,000 people who bought a health plan through Pennie, the state’s ACA marketplace, had canceled their coverage by the end of May, according to figures released by Pennie on Tuesday. 

The passage of funding for ICE and Border Patrol is undoubtedly creating a sense of anxiety for immigrant communities in Pennsylvania, even amid cities like Philadelphia making ongoing policy efforts to protect K-12 students from federal immigration enforcement operations. A group of Pennsylvania senators has called for “ICE Out” with a new legislative package that includes measures to restrict Immigration and Customs Enforcement, like preventing local law enforcement from partnering with federal agencies and protecting voting locations. This mirrors the ICE Out legislation passed by Philadelphia City Council.

The Commonwealth has been navigating a disconnect when it comes to AI and energy, where federal shifts and the desire to capitalize on new tech and revenue have outpaced the state’s ability to create any local guardrails. Toeing the line between development and responsible data center rollouts, last week, Governor Shapiro announced GRID: Governor’s Responsible Infrastructure Development, to establish guardrails and accountability standards for new data center development in the state.  Gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity still called for a pause on data centers, publicly breaking from Governor Shapiro, who has positioned Pennsylvania as a friendly state for companies looking to expand. We’ll be watching to see what comes out of the House and Senate in the next few months amid appropriations. 

What We’re Watching 

Did you know? Pennsylvania has a Rome, California, Lebanon, Moscow, Nazareth, Newfoundland, Norwegian, Athens, Dallas, Houston, Armenia, Berlin…and a Mars! 

Till next time,