The Bellevue Compass

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Welcome back to The Bellevue Compass. Congress has only a few more days in session before its 5-week summer recess begins. The GOP’s priorities have taken major hits, and they’re moving at a glacial pace as stalemates on the floor keep legislators from any real movement on bills. 

The Congressional Breakdown

It’s been a quiet week so far on the Hill after the July 4th celebrations. According to Politico, House leaders are floundering to gather their chambers together for any meaningful action before legislators leave town for the summer recess. 

Here’s what they report is happening: Another party-line reconciliation package is in the works, though it’s a long shot, especially as President Trump continues to insist that the SAVE Act be part of any passed package. Senator Tom Tillis, when asked if he thought the House would strong-arm the legislation through by blocking everything else, did not seem confident in the viability of that tactic. The SAVE Act remains dead in the water for now.

Talks for the larger reconciliation package began in the spring, with some hoping for the bill to include healthcare reform, funding for the Iran conflict (which may or may not see more discussion incoming, as Trump has made claims that the ceasefire is over as the US and Iran trade strikes), and other priorities. Some GOP members are concerned that a sweeping partisan measure will risk alienating voters ahead of midterm elections. 

The slim majority is another factor—two House GOP defections, and the effort is tanked. Either way, members of the GOP are pretty lukewarm on whether or not the package is a possibility. Rep. August Pfluger, chair of the Republican Study Committee, said he doesn’t see the bill going forward if it “doesn’t happen in the first couple of days [after the recess]”. While the GOP majority in the Senate is greater than the House, a few defections and the absence of hospitalized Senator Mitch McConnell create a similar scenario for passing controversial legislation.

Also happening in Congress: Trump reportedly asked legislators to direct billions of dollars to cover the continuing conflict in Iran, to the tune of $67 billion. Support for the funding, however, isn’t universal. Republicans left a classified briefing last week with Pentagon officials “frustrated by unanswered questions”, according to Politico. 

And, following Trump’s loss in the Supreme Court on birthright citizenship, GOP hardliners are eyeing legislation that would limit the ability of pregnant women to enter the United States legally to gain citizenship for their children, or “birth tourism”, which the GOP claims is rampant. Johnson is eyeing bringing a bill up for a vote in order to appease his party, but stands no real chance of overcoming the Senate filibuster. There’s also skepticism that any legislators—even ones on Trump’s side—will want to touch legislation related to immigration so close to midterms. It’s one to watch, but not one to worry over yet, since the likelihood of a bill related to “birth tourism” and birthright citizenship has a slim chance of making it to the Senate. 

The Sector Breakdown

The Pennsylvania Impact

While the Hill is on a light week, legislators in Harrisburg are trying to hammer out a budget deal. The budget is officially late—for the sixth year in a row—but the House is on a -6 hour call of the Chair and the Senate is at the call of the President pro Tempore.  Behind the scenes, our sources say that things are at least moving. 

The budget has two bills, one with actual budget language and another with tax language, and legislators are working hard to reconcile changes and disagreements between parties. Governor Shapiro unveiled his $53.3 billion spending plan in February with a marked increase in spending on human services, housing, and public education. 

In a joint statement from Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward (R-39), Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman (R-41), and Senate Appropriations Chair Scott Martin (R-13), a consensus is expected to be reached within the next few days, with potential session days Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this week. 

Their statement read: “This week, we have received the necessary clarity on many outstanding issues which were delaying completion of this year’s budget. Presently, we believe we are well on our way to effectuating a full budget agreement in the days following July 4th. At the conclusion of the session today, the Senate will recess to the call of the President Pro Tempore and will reconvene once final budgetary language is ready to advance.”

Legislative movement at both the federal and state levels might be slow from here on out, as PA works to pass its budget and all chambers get ready for an extended holiday recess. 

What We’re Watching

Did you know? Just over the Pennsylvania state line in Waynesboro sits the Raven Rock Military Complex, referred to as “Site R”. It’s an underground government facility building the early 1950s built as a backup Pentagon in case of nuclear war, and it’s location was a secret for decades. 

Till next time,