The Bellevue Compass

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The Senate only has a few more days in session before they break for summer recess—but getting there might be complicated. The threat looming over their vacation is President Trump, who is urging Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which he’s been fixated on, while Majority Leader Thune has reiterated that it’s unlikely to pass. We break it down below. 

The Congressional Breakdown

The House left town after kicking several bills to the upper chamber for consideration, including the SAVE America Act, which President Trump is determined to see passed—despite Senate leadership's repeated warnings that it’s unlikely. On Monday, the president took to Truth Social to suggest canceling the Senate’s August recess to debate the bill, and has been demanding that the Senate abolish the filibuster to pass it. 

Majority Leader Thune has taken shots back, warning the president that the bill is a waste of time, given that it’s failed each time it’s hit the floor. Thune told reporters, “...sitting here in endless quorum calls, I don’t know if that’s in anybody’s best interest”. There are several Senators who plan to use the August recess to campaign in their home districts ahead of the November midterms, so canceling it isn’t ideal. Conversely, some Senators are mounting a mutiny against Thune, threatening to tank the motion to adjourn for recess to keep the Senate in town. 

Outside the unlikely-to-move (at this point) SAVE America Act, the Senate advanced a legislative priority of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham that expands sanctions on Russia. The bill passed in an 86-12 vote Tuesday night, but it still has steps to go through—namely, the House—before it's implemented. 

The Senate Finance Committee is planning to mark up a bipartisan tax-administration bill on Thursday. Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) are advancing a package of over 50 proposals aimed at modernizing tax administration. The legislation includes a suite of updates, such as lower fees for installment plans, improved IRS online services, and enhanced protections for tax whistleblowers. It also aims to bolster accountability by raising penalties for predatory tax preparers. The bill itself has bipartisan support, but the legislation had been previously stalled over a fight regarding the administration’s attempt to shield Trump from IRS audits. Whether or not a vote will happen on the amendment addressing the “immunity issue” remains to be seen. 

A few things are floating around in tech legislation: last Thursday, Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) introduced the Digital Age Assurance Act, modeled after a similar California bill, which would require operating systems like Apple and Google to verify users’ ages so that children can only see and interact with age-appropriate content. Meanwhile, bipartisan efforts to place guardrails around developing AI technology are still emerging, and Anthropic and OpenAI have backed an employee-led initiative urging the government to “deliberately pace” AI development. 

The Latest on Iran

On Monday, reports suggested that mediators from Qatar and Pakistan signaled a “potential breakthrough” towards a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire after the fighting stalled for three days following 13 consecutive days of strikes by the U.S. While we don’t know for sure, that may have fallen apart around 8 pm last night, when CENTCOM announced that Iran launched “multiple missiles” at bases in the region. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia responded jointly overnight, carrying out strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. 

The landscape remains precarious, with many Americans wary of another “forever war” and rising gas prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains a key point in the conflict. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met for the first time since the start of the war this week, but reports say that the two world leaders are split in objectives: Trump is facing domestic demands to cease the engagement, both from Congress and citizens, while Netanyahu remains focused on eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities. 

On a related note, President Trump is demanding that the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, keep interest rates where they are, but the Iran war is the wild card that could tip the scales. While the Fed indicated that borrowing rates will likely remain steady for the time being, the war has driven up energy costs, and every effort to resolve the conflict so far has fallen short. 

Beyond today’s Fed meeting, be on the lookout for the Commerce Department’s April-June economic growth report and the Fed’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index when it’s released on Thursday. 

The Sector Breakdown

The Pennsylvania Impact

At home in Pennsylvania, the House and Senate are on summer recess, and many are spending the time campaigning ahead of November’s elections. Everything occurring at the federal level, as the Senate scrambles to make it to their own recess, has, of course, a ripple effect. The legislation floating around—outside of the SAVE America Act—that has the most impact in Pennsylvania is the Senate’s finance bill. 

For small businesses and tax practitioners, the idea of modernized IRS services and streamlined planning is welcome. The agency has long needed an upgrade, and if passed, the legislation could significantly reduce administrative burdens and fees for low-income taxpayers entering installment plans to pay off old debt. It’s also projected to cost less than $400 million—a big number, to be sure, but one of the smaller ones we’ve seen in recent months.

The introduction of the Digital Age Assurance Act, among other ongoing tech-related legislation circulating on Capitol Hill, certainly has implications for Pennsylvania. It’s a signal of a broader shift in tighter federal oversight for tech platforms, especially amid ongoing uncertainty over AI chatbots and children’s online safety. You’ve heard us say it before, but we predict that tech, AI, and data centers will be a high-profile issue in the upcoming election cycle. 

There’s one edition left in this year’s Compass, and we’ll be taking a short break along with Congress when the Senate’s recess starts. If there’s any topic you’d like to see us talk more about, drop us a line at any point during the rest of the summer. 

What We’re Watching

Did you know? In Pittsburgh, it’s illegal to bring a mule or a donkey onto a trolley. We wonder what happened that caused the City Council to pass that law. 

Till next time,