The Bellevue Compass

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This week, Washington is a bit of a spinning top as hardline GOP House members attempt to attach the SAVE America Act to a defense policy bill, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing bill lies in limbo, and the Supreme Court releases a flurry of decisions on major cases. We’re breaking it all down below. 

The Congressional Breakdown

The news dominating the headlines this week is the House’s attempt to attach Trump’s landmark voting legislation, the controversial “SAVE America Act” to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

The measure to set up the $1.1 trillion defense policy bill, alongside the Pentagon bill (an appropriations bill that the NDAA sets up funding for), was combined with the SAVE America Act and passed through the House Rules Committee on Tuesday. This would set everything up to be sent to the Senate as a single piece of legislation. 

Despite the maneuver, GOP hardliners have blocked the legislation, unsatisfied with the plan because attaching the bill as-is to the NDAA leaves room for the Senate to strip the provisions out—which they might do anyway. Democratic leadership is unconvinced that the Senate will accept the defense bill with the elections overhaul attached, so despite the bill advancing out of the Rules Committee, its future is uncertain. Even some GOP members are convinced there is a “zero percent chance that the SAVE Act ends up in the Pentagon bill”, because the Senate will likely remove the measure in negotiations. 

To be clear: it’s highly unlikely that the Senate passes a version of the defense bill with the SAVE America Act in tow. 

Despite Johnson’s best efforts to attach the SAVE America Act to the other bills, he seems unwilling to go full-tilt: the version he’s proposing doesn’t include the major demands from President Trump, including the near-total ban on mail voting. 

As far as the National Defense Authorization Act goes, most Democrats are expected to oppose the measure over the cost. A procedural vote is still needed to get the bill onto the floor, and the House is set to debate 312 amendments, including bans on gender-affirming care, restrictions on transgender military service, and the cessation of aid to Ukraine. But alas, the bill is stalled as a group of Republicans has refused to support said procedural vote.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing bill, the landmark bipartisan housing affordability package Congress passed earlier this month, is en route to becoming law—but not without some drama. President Trump refused to sign the bipartisan housing bill last week, intending to hold the measure hostage until Congress passed the SAVE America Act. According to Speaker Johnson, President Trump is still “deciding” whether he’ll sign the bill into law or allow it to take effect within 10 days of receiving the legislation while Congress is in session. If the president decides to veto the legislation, Congress has the power to attempt to override the veto.

We’ll keep our eye on where it goes in the next few weeks. 

Another major piece of legislation coming out of the House is the sprawling package of online safety bills aimed at children, known as the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA). The package, which includes portions of 14 digital safety bills, was brought to the floor Monday under a suspension of the rules, and now heads to the Senate. 

The battle isn’t over yet, as the bill attempts to hold social media companies accountable for the alleged harm their platforms cause to minors. The bill differs from the Senate version by omitting a “duty of care” provision, which would legally require platforms to “exercise reasonable care” to prevent harm to minors. The bill’s provisions include required age-verification measures, AI chatbot measures, data protections, and plans to raise awareness about drug sales on social media.

Lawmakers have introduced a version of KOSA four times in four years, and while it passed the Senate in 2024, House Republicans’ concerns about censorship and free speech prevented it from ever reaching the floor. We’ll be watching as this version of the bill moves to the Senate. 

The Sector Breakdown

The Pennsylvania Impact

Last week, we talked at length about the benefits and changes that could come from the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. Given that it’s still in limbo between bill and law, we can’t say much more about its implementation or what comes next.

So we’ll pivot to another bill that’s moving through the House and to the Senate, the Kids Online Safety Act, to say that this could be particularly relevant to the state of Pennsylvania, which doesn’t have its own comprehensive kids’ online safety law. Federal baselines like age verification, AI chatbot rules, and data protections would set the floor for the state, especially as the state seeks to crack down on chatbots posing as doctors and “encouraging suicidal ideation”. 

Back in May, Governor Shapiro filed a lawsuit against Character.AI, alleging that allowing its chatbots to pose as licensed medical professionals was misleading and unlawful. Similarly, a proposal requiring artificial intelligence applications to impose certain safety features has moved to the state House. The bill would attempt to prohibit chatbots from encouraging or assisting with suicide attempts or acts of violence, and require companies to take “reasonable measures” to protect minors from sexual content. It’s unclear yet what baseline rules the federal bill would set that Pennsylvania’s own laws would seek to strengthen or change, but we’ll keep an eye on it.  

SCOTUS’s rulings this week also have an impact on Pennsylvania. The birthright citizenship ruling is straightforward—the Supreme Court’s stance on birthright citizenship overrules President Trump’s attempted executive order, meaning that anyone born on U.S. soil will be considered a full citizen of the United States. 

The ruling on transgender sports has a companion bill in Pennsylvania—the Senate passed SB 1293 (the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act”) in April, which would require school and university sports teams to be designated male, female, or co-ed. It now sits in the state House, where it’s likely to stay stalled for the time being. SCOTUS, by ruling that laws like Idaho’s and West Virginia’s don’t violate Title IX, has removed the main federal legal argument opponents have used against bills like SB 1293, meaning a similar law in PA would face slightly less of a risk of being struck down in court. 

The stabilization of oil prices and increased traffic in  the Strait of Hormuz are also notable for Pennsylvania. As we enter election season, prices and affordability are top of mind for many Pennsylvanians, who are hoping to see gas prices fall in the near future. While falling energy prices could be a mixed bag for PA, which is a major natural gas producer, consumers and voters will be happy to see relief at the pump. 

Finally, Check Point’s findings regarding election interference are something to pay attention to, given Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state. Election security is a topic that gets rehashed every year, and this election cycle is no exception—gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity and Governor Shapiro hit the news in March over alleged fraud in the election system. This is particularly relevant amid the debate over the SAVE America Act. Public messaging from the state is already leaning further into debunking misinformation and empowering voters to report intimidation. Expect to see more in the coming months. 

What We’re Watching

Did you know? We have a pretty great fun fact to share ahead of America’s 250th birthday. In 1989, a man in Adamstown, Pennsylvania, found an original copy of the Declaration of Independence tucked behind a painting he bought at a flea market for $4. 200 copies of the Declaration, called Dunlap Broadsides, were printed after the signing—only 26 still exist today.

Till next time,