The Bellevue Compass

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Welcome back to the Compass. Lawmakers are out for a week-long recess, and they’re preparing for what is shaping up to be a long shutdown for the Department of Homeland Security. Negotiations are continuing, but Senate Majority Leader Thune has said that the GOP conference and Democrats are “not close” in coming to any sort of agreement. 

What’s Going on in Congress

The President’s State of the Union address is slated for February 24, and it’s unlikely that bill language gets resolved before then. According to Politico, the lack of progress on a bill has raised the prospect that the speech “may be postponed, and some Democrats are mulling a boycott.”

On Wednesday of last week, Attorney General Pam Bondi testified before the House Judiciary Committee to address ongoing investigations, including the Justice Department’s release of the Epstein files and the two fatal shootings in Minnesota by ICE officers. The hearing had some explosive moments, with Bondi and the representatives clashing as Democratic lawmakers lambasted her handling of the Epstein files and victim’s stories. Bondi called Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the committee, a “washed up loser lawyer, and followed up by claming Rep Thomas Massie, the only Republican on the committee to criticize her, has “Trump derangement syndrome”. 

Las week we also talked about the SAVE Act, which passed the House and now waits in the Senate. Right now, the bill has 50 votes in the Senate—falling short of the 60 needed to pass on to Trump’s desk. It remains to be seen if the GOP conference will attempt to override the filibuster rule to pass the legislation. 

The Munich Conference

Throwing a wrench into bill planning and negotiations was the Munich Security Conference, which took place this weekend and saw over 350 senior officials from more than 70 countries. A number of United States Democrats—including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Ocasio-Cortez—attended the event, despite House Republican leadership letting lawmakers know that they’d be traveling to the conference on their own dime, rather than as part of an official House delegation, and would not be able to use their accreditation. In years past, House members have traveled as an official bipartisan delegation to the conference. The attempt to bar members from attending the event likely has less to do with disagreement with the event than it does with a desire for House members to remain immediately available should DHS funding negotiations come to a vote, which didn’t end up happening. 

German Chancellor Merz opened the conference, warning that the American-led rule-based global order has effectively ended, though he urged the repair of transatlantic ties and European solidarity. Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a different tone from Vice President JD Vance, who spoke at last year’s conference. Instead of the scorched earth approach, Rubio emphasized that the U.S. and Europe “belong together”. But was it enough for European leaders to feel certain about America’s long-term stability as an ally? 

Though the speech still drew pushback from European leaders—especially regarding Rubio’s comments on European civilization—the tone was much improved, emphasizing the United States’ commitment to working with European allies, not against them. 

Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) spoke at the conference about US policy on Israel, criticizing both recent presidents on their support of the nation despite ongoing violations of Leahy Laws. Though, she had a tougher time answering a question regarding the United States’ potential response to issues in Taiwan. Along the same lines, a major headline to come out of the conference was Senator Graham’s comments regarding Iran—and the role the US plays in tamping down citations like the one brewing between China and Taiwan. 

If America doesn’t take down the Iranian regime, “it will be a disaster,” Graham said in an interview with Politico. “It means you can’t rely on America. … It means the Western world is full of crap.” 

The Senator says that he’s urging President Trump to take action in Iran, otherwise risking emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping. European leaders don’t seem to feel confident that the US will come to its aid in regards to nuclear threats anymore, either—Chancellor Merz said that he held “confidential talks” with Franch on European nuclear deterrence, sending the message that previously unconditional trust in the United States is deteriorating. 

Though the conference had some rocky moments, the United States’ attendance and participation were crucial and a hopeful reminder that President Trump’s era of wrecking-ball geopolitics will eventually come to an end. How the nations will move on from it remains to be seen. As the saying goes: the only constant is change.

The Sector Breakdown

On DHS Funding and Transportation

The ongoing DHS shutdown is gearing up to impact TSA and transportation in the coming weeks, if not resolved—and resolution doesn’t seem imminent. Congress appears to be gearing up for a long shutdown as negotiations continue. Right now, TSA officers are working without pay, and though they won’t miss a paycheck until March, roughly 2,900 of the 64,000+ workforce have already been furloughed. As the shutdown continues, expect longer checkpoint wait times, and a cascade of missed and delayed flights across the country. More on the Pennsylvania-specific impact below.

The Pennsylvania Impact

Given the state’s major air hubs, the DHS shutdown has the potential to disrupt travel for a great number of people. During the 43-day shutdown in the fall, TSA temporarily closed two checkpoints at the Philadelphia Airport. The back-up and long wait times across the country became severe enough that the government ordered commercial airlines to reduce their domestic flight schedules by 10%. 

As Pennsylvania is playing host to major events in 2026—including the FIFA World Cup, America250, and the NFL draft—a prolonged DHS funding lapse could meaningfully disrupt travel in and out of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. More than flight delays, however, the shutdown also impact technological improvements at airports and halts TSA’s funding retention. During the fall’s shutdown, there was a 25% spike in officer departures. 

Beyond TSA, FEMA’s disaster relief is also tied up in DHS funding. The good news is there’s a decently sufficient balance for emergency response, but the agency’s long-term planning and coordination is likely to be impacted. The hope, as always, is that no major disasters occur that would cause a major drain in FEMA’s funding before the agency’s future funding is secure. Much of the Coast Guard’s 56,000 active duty, reserve, and civilian personnel are considered essential and are therefore working without pay. 

Additional agencies impacted by the DHS shutdown are the CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency) and the Secret Service, all of whom are facing down work without pay and a ripple effect on hiring. CISA is particularly relevant given Pennsylvania’s status as a political battleground state and 2026 host—disruptions in cybersecurity could increase the state’s government and businesses' vulnerability during high-profile events. 

Senator Fetterman was the only Democrat to vote to advance DHS funding, putting him once more in a very public, slightly awkward position with his party and voters. While he’s a proponent of ICE reform—a key point of negotiation in the shutdown—his vote to push DHS funding through was a response to the July-passed One Big Beautiful Bill. 

“Shutting DHS down has zero impact and zero changes for ICE. ICE already has $75 billion in funding from the BBB that I did not vote for,” Senator Fetterman said in a video, continuing to say that the DHS shutdown would hurt agencies like FEMA, the Coast Guard, and the Cybersecurity agency. In response to his vote, Anti-ICE activists have protested outside Fetterman’s Philadelphia office. 

Outside of the DHS funding mess, a federal judge on Monday ordered the Trump administration to temporarily restore the displays about George Washington’s slave ownership to their place at the site of his Philadelphia house at Independence National Park. Judge Cynthia M. Rufe granted a preliminary injunction to the City of Philadelphia, which filed a lawsuit last month against the Department of Interior and the National Park Service over the display’s removal.

🔥 What We’re Watching

Did You Know? Pennsylvania has the most covered bridges (219!) still in existence of any state, and Lancaster County leads the list of counties with the most, at 29.

Till next time,